Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
