Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
